Bitcoin steady as Iran tensions rattle oil markets

Bitcoin held steady near USD $64,000 as tensions between the United States and Iran unsettled broader financial markets. Bitrue research said on-chain indicators showed long-term holders were not selling.

Oil prices rose sharply as fears of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude to USD $90.37 per barrel, up 2.58% in a single session and more than 15% over the past month. WTI crude moved into the USD $81-$84 range.

The jump in energy markets spilt into equities, with several large technology stocks falling. NVIDIA dropped 2.21%, Meta fell 2.79%, Tesla declined 2.61%, Alphabet lost 2.17%, Microsoft slipped 1.82%, and Amazon was down 1.06%.

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin traded in a relatively narrow USD $64,000-$65,000 band, keeping its market capitalisation above USD $1.3 trillion. The Bitrue Research Institute said three blockchain measures pointed to constrained supply despite the broader volatility.

The first measure, long-term holder supply, climbed to 16.75 million BTC by mid-July. The institute described that as the highest level recorded in the current cycle, suggesting a large share of coins was being retained rather than sold.

The second, the Miners' Position Index, stood at -1.1270 after a 14.2% rise. According to the research, that level indicates miner selling pressure remained below historical averages.

A third indicator, Exchange Inflow CDD, reached 74,692.8K, up 2.41%. Bitrue said that showed long-term holders were not moving coins to exchanges in large numbers even as geopolitical tensions grew and equity markets weakened.

Those readings matter because Bitcoin investors often watch on-chain data for signs that a price move is being driven by changes in supply behaviour rather than short-term sentiment alone. If holders and miners keep coins off the market, the supply available for sale remains tight.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Research Lead at the Bitrue Research Institute, described the signals as unusually aligned.

"Three on-chain signals are telling the same story right now. Long-term holder supply has reached 16.75 million BTC, the highest level we've tracked this cycle, meaning coins are being locked away, not distributed. The Miners' Position Index at -1.1270 tells us miner selling pressure is well below historical averages, so there's no supply being forced onto the market from that side either. And Exchange Inflow CDD at 74,692.8K confirms that long-term holders are not moving coins to exchanges despite the macro noise. When all three of these metrics align like this during a period of equity selloffs, it historically signals that Bitcoin's supply structure is in a strong position, and that's exactly what we're seeing right now," Adziima said.

Market contrast

The divergence between Bitcoin and equities comes as investors reassess how different asset classes react to inflation risks and geopolitical shocks. Shares in growth-focused technology groups tend to weaken when energy costs rise, and interest rate expectations become more uncertain, while assets seen as stores of value can prove more resilient.

Bitcoin supporters have long argued that its fixed issuance model gives it qualities associated with gold, particularly during periods of political stress. The latest market moves will add to that debate, although Bitcoin has historically remained more volatile than traditional safe-haven assets.

Bitrue also pointed to the transparency of blockchain data as a distinguishing feature. Unlike gold, where ownership and movement are harder to track in real time, Bitcoin allows traders and analysts to monitor whether older coins are being transferred, sold or held.

Outlook focus

The research note said analysts continue to discuss price targets in the USD $80,000 to USD $100,000 range and higher, citing exchange-traded fund inflows, institutional demand and the effects of the latest halving cycle. Those expectations remain subject to swings in regulation, monetary policy and investor appetite for risk.

For now, the immediate story is that Bitcoin has not followed the wider market lower despite a sharp rise in oil and a retreat in major US technology stocks. The data cited by Bitrue suggests a significant cohort of holders is still choosing to sit tight rather than send coins to market.

Long-term holder supply has reached 16.75 million BTC, while the Miners' Position Index remains at -1.1270 and Exchange Inflow CDD stands at 74,692.8K.